Climate Change
Impacts of Climate Change
- Sea-level rise
- Inundation
- Shoreline change
Vulnerability to Climate Change
The small size and low-lying nature of the Maldivian islands make the island nation system highly exposed and sensitive to climate change impacts. The vulnerability assessment for the SNC identified eight areas of vulnerability.
Critical Infrastructure – Critical Infrastructures such as utility services, hospitals, transport and communication Infrastructures and waste management centres are located within very close proximity to coastline. These infrastructures are exposed to coastal hazards such as sea swells, storm surges and related coastal flooding.
Water Resources – Inundation models further identified the increased risk of salinizing of the groundwater.
Land loss, Beach Erosion and Human Settlements – With about 80% of islands being lower than one meter above the mean sea level, the islands of the Maldives are extremely vulnerable to climate change and its associated impacts, particularly sea level rise.
Coral Reefs – The most critical impact on coral reefs are due to the increase in sea surface temperature (SST).
Agriculture and Food Security – Limited agricultural production, heavy import dependency, limitations in storage and challenges in the distribution of food across the nation are major threats to national food security. The small size of islands and limited freshwater availability limit local agricultural production. Extreme weather events further exacerbate this vulnerability, especially when flooding due to surges or sea swells and high waves impact the freshwater lens.
Human Health – Climate change will have direct and indirect impact on human health. In Maldives heat and extreme weather events, especially floods due to heavy rainfall have direct health impacts. Indirect health effects of climate change include secondary effects caused by changes in ecology and social systems. Vector borne diseases are the most prominent indirect impacts on the human health for the Maldives. Vector borne diseases such as Dengue, Chikungunya and Scrub typhus are vector borne diseases of immediate concern due to changing climate.
Fisheries – Changes in sea surface temperature and ocean pH are the main factors likely to affect fisheries in the Maldives. The Maldives fisheries is predominantly dependent on tuna fisheries. Tuna fishery of the Maldives is affected by the seasonal monsoon and other oceanographic variations.
Tourism – As the sea, sand and sun is a major pull factor for tourists to visit the Maldives, the tourism product is highly vulnerable to effects of climate change. The major climate change impacts on the Maldives tourism sector include impacts due to increased temperatures, increased extreme events, sea level and SST rise and changes to marine biodiversity.
Reference
MEE, (2016). Second National Communication of Maldives to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change: Ministry of Environment and Energy
Climate Variability
What is Madden Julian Oscillation?
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is an eastward moving wave-like large pressure disturbance near the equator that recurs typically in 30 to 60 day intervals that initiates west of Maldives. This phenomenon was first discovered by Roland Madden and Paul Julian in 1971. The wave traverses the planet in tropics at a approximate speed of 4- 8 m/s in the atmosphere. Due to this progression, rainfall is enhanced and suppressed in various parts of the tropics based on the location of the wave.
MJO Impact on the Rainfall of The Maldives
As the MJO propagates anomalous rainfall is observed in various parts of the world. Even if the wave is in another region the MJO might still has an influence on the rainfall of a particular region. In order to find out the impact of the MJO on the rainfall of the Maldives the relationship between wind, rainfall anomaly and MJO Phase was studied for different seasons (Jan-Mar, Apr-Jun, Jul-Sep, Oct-Dec). The anomaly is the departure from the long-term average when the MJO phase is in a given phase. The maps below show the anomaly at tropical Indian Ocean region.
A significant relationship between the MJO and the rainfall of the Maldives was found. In Hanimadhoo in the north, there is a significant relationship between the rainfall and the MJO throughout the entire MJO cycle. In Hulhule the relationship is statistically significant except in phases 4 and 8. The rainfall- MJO relationship is statistically non significant in phases 3 and 8 in southern islands Gan and Kadhdhoo. The highest enhancement in rainfall throughout the Maldives is when the MJO is in Phase 2 and the highest suppression is when the MJO is in phases 5 and 6. Further studies show that there is a seasonal impact of the MJO on the rainfall in the Maldives. During July to September the impact of the MJO on the rainfall is relativelylow compared to the other months of the year. There are methods to project the phase of the MJO which can be used to estimate the enhancement or the suppression of rainfall due to the MJO.
El Niño and La Niña Influences on the Cllimate of Maldives
The El Niño and La Niña are naturally occurring phenomena where the interaction between the equatorial Pacific Ocean and the atmosphere results in a coupled variation of sea surface temperatures (SST) over the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean and the east- west atmospheric oscillation. The SST over the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean is an index for the intensity of this phenomena. Based on this index 3 ENSO phases are defined. They are El Niño, La Niña and Neutral. The atmospheric circulation is referred to as Walker Circulation or Southern Oscillation and are illustrated by the Walker Circulation Schematics.
Rainfall Climatology in El Niño and La Niña phases
In Hulhule, an El Nino enhances rainfall in May and October to December while a La Niña enhances rainfall in March and suppresses rainfall in October to December.
El Niño and La Niña affects Gan in southern Maldives in a more complicated way. A La Niña suppresses rainfall in Gan in March as well as May to November and enhances rainfall in April. An El Niño enhances rainfall in March. There is an unusual peak in the rainfall in October when the phase is neutral.
The impact of El Niño and La Niña on rainfall depends on the season and the region. The Maldives has nearly 1200 islands spread in a vast area (from the equator to 80 N). In northern islands a La Niña has a higher impact on rainfall than an El Niño. In central islands El Niño/ La Niña impact is highest during October to December. Rainfall is mostly suppressed during a La Niña in southern islands. Generally most of the time an El Nino is associated with the enhancement of rainfall throughout the Maldives.
Climate Monitoring
FECT has been providing weekly hydro-meteorological advisories for the Maldives since 2011. The advisory reviews and interprets weekly to seasonal monitored climate and predictions from 3-days to 6 months ahead from various agencies and scientists including our own.
The weekly report consists of two parts namely Monitoring and Predictions. Monitoring Includes Daily Satellite Derived Rainfall Estimates, Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate, Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring Predictions and Ocean Surface Monitoring. Rainfall Predictions include Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP and Seasonal Predictions from International Research Institute.
This report is prepared Foundation for Environment, Climate and Technology, Maldives Meteorological Service, and Columbia University.
- Rainfall Monitoring
- Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
- Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
- Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
- Ocean Surface Monitoring
- Rainfall Predictions
- Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
- Seasonal Predictions from IRI
This report is accessible at